Gentlemen,
In the establishing of our manifesto, I believe this issue can be the single hardest one to decide about. I won't deny that in my heart I yet remain a Europhile, but I have come to the conclusion that it has become indefensible to keep Britain in the EU without an actual mandate to do so. With now over 70% demanding a referendum in the polls, you can no longer deny that refusing the people a referendum is an obstruction of democracy.
To be concrete: The question is no longer if we should hold a referendum, but when.
Now, from reading AndyC's Ideal UK (in my opinion an excellent list of ideas), I see that our Shadow Chancellor outright wants to leave the EU. From this I can only infer that he wishes for a referendum to go ahead as soon as possible after the election. Personally, I am split, and would ideally like to put it at two years after the election (i.e., in 2014).
My reasoning is simple, at the moment I believe the Eurocrisis can yet reach some sort of stabilization within a year or so, and thus an immediate referendum, followed by a likely exit by the UK could inflict massive damage to the European economy, thus hurting the UK severely. In two years time, however, things would be different. To appeal to the LibDem Europhiles among us, if the seas of the European economy have finally flattened out and the storm has come to an end, then the Yes2Europe side is likely to win, and the EU has in some sense been vindicated as a project.
However, if the tempest of the markets is still raging, and the crisis has but gone worse, then I hope that you will agree with me that no intellectually honest person (not even the most devout Europhile) can any longer consider the EU project to be anything but a failure that must be brought to an end as soon as possible. I would say that in this situation, the ideal would be to apply for membership in the far more decentralized EFTA and work for it to replace the EU in the role of providing an open, common, European market.
Thus, I hereby send this question to you: When would you suggest is the best time to hold a referendum?
Best Wishes,Max.
Monday, 25 June 2012
EU Referendum
Moving this here from Makemakean's PM so that we can discuss it better.
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Max's logic is irrefutable. As he infers, I've gradually come to the conclusion that membership in the EEA would far better suit the British view of what we wish to achieve from "Europe", being the closest approach to the Common Market which is what many seem to desire.
ReplyDeleteThere are negatives as well as positives with such a status, of course. I do agree with his logic that 2014 is a good compromise referendum date to allow either a recovery of the EU "dream" or to establish its irrefutable failure. As one who wishes to withdraw from the EU to the EEA, I can strongly endorse this.
People will support a referendum on anything, as the alternative is to say, 'No were too stupid, let the politicians decide'.
ReplyDeleteBut in general I agree, and find that the proposition for a referendum in 2014/15 acceptable.
Oh and just to note, I am also an ardent Europhile.
DeleteI'm a soft Eurosceptic, and I support this referendum.
ReplyDeleteThere are two decisions we have to make as a party on this issue - whether or not we should be in the EU, and whether or not we should hold a referendum on the issue.
ReplyDeleteAs far as membership goes, I am pro-membership on purely economic grounds. Access to the single market is a massive economic boon that outweighs any negative impact from all those annoying regulations. I don't think anyone would disagree with me that this is the case. Most people suggesting that we should leave the EU argue that we can have the best of both worlds - access to the single market through the EEA without membership of the EU. This would give us access to the single market, and exemption from some EU rules, but we would still remain subject to many EU regulations that we would no longer have a say in. For example, it would be far more difficult for us to thwart attempts to introduce a Tobin tax which would hurt our vital financial services sector. We need the free market, and we need a say in the regulations that govern that free market. This is the remorseless logic that governs my attitude to the EU, and I hope everyone can agree on this.
That said, we can turn our attention to the issue actually on the table. My feeling is that if we call a referendum on EU Membership, it is very likely that the public will make the "wrong" decision and we will end up leaving. Far more people are passionate about leaving the EU than remaining in it. We really, really don't want another AV on our record.
There would be substantial benefits to calling a referendum, most importantly exacerbating the Conservatives' internal divisions; however, unlike the real-world party, AH.com's Tories are pretty unanimously Eurosceptic.
Ultimately, I think we have to do what's in the best interests of the country. Those interests are best served by continued membership of the EU, which a referendum would significantly threaten. Therefore I don't think we should campaign for a referendum.
I would argue also that, with the current uncertainty about the future of the Eurozone, now is not a very good time to be rocking the boat in Europe, especially since we don't know what 'Europe' is going to look like in six months, let alone five or ten years' time.
DeleteOn another note I am an Europhile of the 'believing in the dream' school, as oppose to an economic position.
DeleteI strongly agree over membership of the single market, but imposition of an FTT without our consent would not be possible under EEA rules - it's not a shared power there.
DeleteFurther, having once looked through the list of regulations that are compulsory under EEA rules (yes, I was that bored once), they're almost all of the variety of "this is the percentage of fruit required for it to be called "jam".
There is also an EEA council consulting on imposition of these regulations - the logic of size is that it's not exactly a body of influence at the moment (Norway plus tiny minnows stacked up against the entire EU hardly has much say); the addition of the UK to such a body would change this as a matter of realpolitick.
To be honest, continued membership against the wishes of the populace is both undemocratic (the people should not only get a say when they are deemed to be likely to give the "right" answer) but unfair to our colleagues in Europe - a carping, whingeing Britain reluctantly trailing along within the Project doesn't help anyone. Besides, odds are they'd vote to stay in anyway (most referendums have a strong tendency towards the "status quo" option.